This LA Times article explains it: The judging panel for the Emmys picks five nominees from a list of ten finalists. Three critics weigh in on their ideas for what the top ten will be, and all three choose Mad Men; one mentions it as a contender for the final five, the other two are entirely silent on what they think those five will be.

So, not a lock for a nomination, but they all believe it’ll make it to the judges who decide the nominations. Thrilling.